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주택수요 지역별 차별화 예상 (Housing demand in hottest markets to diverge)

Altus Group의 최근 분석에 의하면, 2019년은 지역별로 수요가 차별화 될 것으로 보는데, 특히 온타리오주는 인구증가와 늘어나는 이민자로 인해 가장 혜택을 볼 것이고, GTA지역은 2018년 가격하락폭, 하반기 회복세 등을 감안할 때 2019년중 거래가 가장 활발한 지역이 될 것으로 전망되는데, 대출규제, 개발부담금 신설 등으로 2017년 대비하여 50% 이상 거래가 감소하였던 2018년의 콘도시장과 대비가 될 것으로 전망. GTA외곽인 키치너-워털루지역은 상대적으로 저렴한 콘도 가격으로 2018년중 수요가 많았음.

밴쿠버는 지난해 신규 주택의 공급이 크게 위축이 되었는데, 높은 차입비용과 상승하는 건축비로 인해 거래량이 감소하고, 가격에 민감한 소비자들에게 높은 분양가격은 평균 이하의 거래량이 될 가능성이 높다고 전망..

Housing demand in hottest markets to diverge

The country’s hottest markets should expect varying degrees of housing demand this year, according to the latest analyses by Altus Group. In particular, Ontario’s residential property segment will benefit the most from population growth and increased immigration.

“Markets in the Greater Golden Horseshoe, including the GTA, have the most upside potential for an increase in sales activity in 2019 given the depth of the decline in 2018 and building off of the sales recovery noted in the back half of 2018,” Altus explained in its outlook for this year.

This is in contrast to a relatively subdued 2018, especially in the condo sector, which saw the most significant cooling impact of the B-20 regulations along with new development charges. Last year’s sales remained down by almost 50% compared to 2017, Altus noted. Ontario’s markets apart from the GTA, particularly Kitchener-Waterloo, magnetized greater demand in 2018 due to their condos’ affordability.

Meanwhile, Vancouver saw a “remarkably constrained” supply of new homes last year. Going into 2019, Vancouver is “exhibiting the most potential for downside risk,” Altus warned. The market will likely experience a notable decline in sales numbers this year, amid higher borrowing costs and mounting construction costs. “A key challenge that has become more apparent as of late in Vancouver has been the price sensitivity of consumers, with higher priced projects, or those priced above the competition, experiencing below average sales rates,” according to Altus.

by Ephraim Vecina10 Jan 2019


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