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캐나다 주택가격 회복세(Canada’s home prices recovering from "significant correction")

부동산중개업체인 Royal LePage의 보고서에 의하면, 2018년 4분기 캐나다 주택가격의 중간치는 $631,223으로 전년에 비해 4%가 올랐음. 2층 주택은 $745,007로 3.9%, 방갈로는 $516,950으로 1.5%, 콘도는 $447,915로 7.2% 올라 가장 가파른 가격 상승을 기록하였음. 지난 10여년간 위험수준에 이를 정도로 과열되었던 부동산 시장이 정부의 규제와 금리인상 등으로 조정기에 접어 들었으나, 시장의 보이지 않은 손이 2018년에 재가동 버튼을 누른 것이 아닌가 하는 것이 Royal LePage사장인 Phil Soper의 의견임. 구매가 쉬운 주변시장이 상대적으로 많이 올랐는데, 2018년 4분기중 윈저 14.7%, 킹스톤 13.8%, 오타와 9.3%, 키치너/워털루/켐브리지 9%, 런던 8.9%가 올랐음.

2019년중에는 가격부담 완화, 고용의 증가, 10여년전에 비해 40%정도 낮은 금리수준으로 인해 부동산 시장이 좋아 질 것으로 보고 있음. 다만, 신규 건축이 부진하여 재고가 부족한 점이 장기적으로 부동산시장을 불안정하게 하는 요인이 될 수 있음.

Canada’s home prices recovering from "significant correction"

Canada’s home prices increased 4% year-over-year in the fourth quarter of 2018, a sign of the market recovering from “the most significant housing correction” since the financial crisis. That’s the conclusion of a report from Royal LePage which shows that the median price of a home in Canada rose to $631,223. For a two-story home, the median rose 3.9% to $745,007, while the median price of a bungalow climbed 1.5% to $516,950. Condos remained the property type with the sharpest rise in prices nationwide rising 7.2% year-over-year to $447,915.

"The invisible hand that guides our complex economy hit the real estate reset button in 2018 and that is a good thing," said Phil Soper, president & CEO, Royal LePage. "Major market home price inflation through much of the decade had led to dangerous overheating in our most populous regions. Government regulatory intervention and rising interest rates, when combined with property price overshooting, triggered the correctional cycle we find ourselves working through today."

The report shows that secondary markets gained in Q4 2018 as buyers looked to more affordable options. Of the regions studied in the Royal LePage National House Price Composite, Windsor and Kingston saw the highest appreciation rates in Ontario, rising 14.7% and 13.8% year-over-year, respectively. Meanwhile, regions including Ottawa, Kitchener/Waterloo/Cambridge, and London saw strong aggregate price gains of 9.3%, 9.0%, and 8.9% respectively.

How is 2019 looking?

Last week’s decision by the BoC to hold interest rates steady at 1.75% and its reduced economic growth forecast (1.7% in 2019 rather than 2.1%) has prompted some economists to reset their forecasts. But Soper says that the underlying economics should support growth for Canada’s housing market in the year ahead. “House prices and home sales volumes were soft and slow last year; expect modestly better results in 2019,” he said.

One bright spot, he added, is a better condition for first-time buyers. This is due to easing prices, growing employment, and mortgage rates that are 40% lower for a 5-year FRM than they were a decade ago (3.5% now vs. 5.9% according to the Canadian Association of Accredited Mortgage Professionals). "Employment is high, rates are low, and home prices are essentially flat. 2019 is shaping up to be a year of rare opportunities," Soper said.

Tight supply

However, tight inventory remains a challenge for many Canadian housing markets and Soper says policymakers must not take their eyes off the ball on this. "In down markets, construction tends to slow, exasperating our housing shortage problems. From there it is simple supply and demand; if we don't build more homes, we risk another housing crisis and a return to runaway prices in our major markets," he warned.

by Steve Randall 14 Jan 2019


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