부동산 시장 분석 및 서비스 업체인 Altus Group이 발표한 자료에 따르면, 2018년은 전년에 비해 거래량이 대폭 줄어 숨 고르는 한해였지만, 2019년은 나아질 것으로 전망하고 있음. 2018년 항목별 2017년대비 거래량을 보면 새 주택 거래는 50%, 새 콘도 거래는 38%가 감소하였으나, 산업용 부동산은 251%증가하였음. 새 주택 거래의 감소요인은 엄격한 모기지스트레스 테스트 제도의 도입, 오른 가격에 대한 부담 등이나, 2018년 말부터 개선의 조짐을 보이고 있음. 지난 2년간 새 콘도의 분양가격은 57%가 올라서 평균 80만불 수준에 도달하였음.

좋은 소식은 렌트 거주자들이 2019년에는 집을 살 의사가 많다는 점임. 2019년도 주요 부동산 시장 전망은 다음과 같음.

1) 새 주택시장

- 임대용 주택이 있어도 여전히 콘도가 인구증가에 따른 주택수요를 감당하고 있어서, 실수요자나 투자자들이 계속 활발히 움직일 것으로 예상된다. 단독은 낮은 가격대의 주택 매물이 소진되고, 구매가능한 가격대의 매물이 많아지면 수요자가 늘 것이다.

2) 상업 용 투자 부동산

 - 투자활동은 2019년에도 많아서 안정적인 시장이 지속될 전망이고, 핵심자산으로부터의 적정 수익율도 유지될 것이다.

3) 사무실, 산업용 및 소매

- 다운타운 지역의 사무실 수요는 여전히 강세이다. 990만 sq. Ft 가 건축 중으로 완공이 되면 향후수 년간 공실율이 약간 늘 전망이다. 상대적으로 저렴한 임대료 부담이 되는 교외지역도 관심이 늘고 있다. 인터넷 판매업체 창고 등 산업용 수요도 꾸준하고, 공간이 부족하여 임대료도 꾸준히 증가할 전망이다. 일반 소매수요도 여전히 강세이며, 주상복합 건물 등 새로운 형태로 발전하고 있다.

4) 토지는 여건이 좋아 전년보다 거래가 증가할 것이다. 주 정부가 Growth Plan을 수정하여 택지공급을 늘리려고 하고 있고, 지방자치정부 LPAT에게 권한을 위임하여 허가를 신속히 해 줄수 있도록 하고 있다.

2018 Toronto Commercial and Residential Real Estate Market Takes a Breather

Altus Group Limited (“Altus Group”) (TSX: AIF), a leading provider of software, data solutions and independent advisory services to the global commercial real estate industry, today released its 2019 GTA Flash Report, which provides a comprehensive review of the real estate market in the Greater Toronto Area (“GTA”) based on 2018 Altus Group data. The report highlights the performance of investment property sales volumes, land markets, commercial leasing and the new home sectors in the GTA.

Overall year-over-year percentage change in relative performance by market activity in the GTA:

     Market activity                                Year-over-year % change in activity levels

     New Single-Family Home Sales                                              -50%

     New Condominium Apartment Sales                                      -38%

     Investment Transaction $ Volumes, Improved Properties         -1%

     Investment Transaction $ Volumes, Land                                -22%

     Office Space Absorption                                                           18%

      Industrial Space Absorption                                                   251%

“Real estate investment in general, had a bit of a quieter year after an exceptional 2017,” said Matthew Boukall, Vice President, Data Solutions at Altus Group. “We expect the downturn will be short-lived, with the rebound in home buying intentions, the pause in interest rate increases and continued interest in commercial real estate as an investment asset class.”

Total investment property sales volumes in the GTA totaled $21.1 billion in 2018, down from the record set in 2017, but still, the second highest annual volume yet recorded since Altus Group started tracking the market in 2000. The decline largely can be attributed to the 31% decline in residential land activity.

Within the investment property transactions, the rental apartment sector was the star performer in 2018, posting both the largest dollar and largest percent increases with $2.7 billion in sales while the office sector set another new record, at just under $4 billion in sales. After three years of decline, institutional investors stepped up their activity again in 2018. At the same time, foreign investment reached a multi-year high. 

In the office market, the completion of new office space dropped to the lowest level in 15 years with only 650,000 sq. ft. of new offices added to the GTA in 2018. Stronger office space absorption in the downtown submarket, combined with virtually no new supply delivered last year, pulled the vacancy rate in the downtown to 3.1%, the lowest level recorded in Altus Group’s tracking history. Much needed new office supply is on its way with close to 11.9 million sq. ft. under construction, of which 9.9 million sq. ft. is underway in the downtown alone.

Turning to the new home sector, total new home sales in the GTA dropped 40% to just over 25,000 units, which is the lowest level since Altus Group started tracking. New condominium apartment sales fell back to levels comparable to 2014 and 2015, and while down from the record level set in 2017, is near the ten-year average for the market. The reduction in sales activity is partially attributable to the more stringent mortgage stress testing that delayed purchases, and limited availability of a single-family product that was affordable to a broader range of incomes. With available inventory low in relation to the pace of sales, the average asking price for a new condominium apartment in the GTA rose by 57% in the past two years with the benchmark price reaching an all-time high at just under $800,000 by the end of 2018.

The good news is that more GTA households are planning to buy homes in the upcoming year. Homebuying intentions among renters – the primary pool for potential first-time buyers – plunged in 2017 due to affordability and mortgage financing challenges but rebounded in late 2018.

Below are key predictions for 2019:

Office, Industrial, and Retail:

Office: while office space demand is expected to stay strong in the downtown market, the 9.9 million sq. ft. of space currently under construction will lead to gradually easing vacancy rates over the next few years. The market is experiencing increased interest from tenants considering suburban locations based on the competitive rents and more alternatives to choose from.

Industrial: demand for industrial space will remain strong as online and traditional retailers seek warehouse space to support their e-commerce business strategies. Rents will continue to show significant increases due to shortages in newer facilities.

Retail: while e-commerce has continued to disrupt the retail markets, demand for retail assets remained strong. Watch for increased mixed-use development and new retail concepts especially as retailers expand choices for how consumers shop.

Land Sales:

With growth prospects for the GTA still very favorable, land sales are expected to improve from 2018 levels. However, some uncertainty has been introduced to this sector, with the Province of Ontario’s proposed changes to the Growth Plan for the Greater Golden Horseshoe and the introduction of the Local Planning Appeal Tribunal (LPAT).

New Homes Market:

Even with some moderate increases in contributions from purpose-built rental buildings, new condos will remain the primary source of the additional housing needed to accommodate a growing population base. This will keep both end-users and investors active in the market.

New single-family home sales will remain relatively low until competition with lower-priced excess supply in the resale market is reduced and more affordable product options are made available that appeal to a broader range of buyers.

Commercial Investment Property:

Investment activity in the GTA is expected to remain strong in 2019 as assets in Canada and Toronto continue to be in demand for investors based on stable market fundamentals and a track record of consistent returns, especially for core asset classes.

The 2019 GTA Flash Report can be downloaded at https://datasolutions.altusgroup.com/download-toronto-flash-report-2019/.

TORONTO, Feb. 01, 2019 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) For more information, please visit www.altusgroup.com.