캐나다 중앙은행 하반기 주택가격 상승 전망 (BOC: "Canadian housing sector should return to growth" this year)

캐나다중앙은행이 기준금리 1.75%를 동결한 것은 예상대로이지만, 상반기중 침체는 하반기중 경제성장 및 고용증가, 국제적인 저금리에 따라 낮아진 모기지이자율 등으로 상승할 것으로 전망.

The Bank of Canada’s decision Wednesday to freeze interest rates at 1.75% was no great surprise but the Monetary Policy Report was a welcome insight into how the BoC sees the state of the economy.

Noting the recent slowdown in the economy, Governor Stephen Poloz said that the bank’s Governing Council believe that it will prove to be temporary and that the global economy will adjust to current challenges including trade conflicts.

He spoke of the continued issues for the oil sector which in turn impacts housing in those markets that are more dependent on the sector.

However, for both oil industries and other exporters who would be affected if CUSMA was not ratified, the Governor said that weakness in the first part of 2019 is expected to give way to growth as the year progresses.

For housing markets, the BoC acknowledged that previously frothy markets including the Greater Toronto and Greater Vancouver areas have seen “significant revision” in price expectations.

But Stephen Poloz also pointed to other markets such as Halifax, Montreal, Ottawa, and Winnipeg which have seen the “solid activity” that would be expected in a growing economy with rising population and job creation.

He also highlighted the reduction in mortgage rates driven by lower global bond yields.

All things considered, the BoC expects the Canadian housing sector to “return to growth overall later this year.” by Steve Randall 25 Apr 2019 https://www.mortgagebrokernews.ca