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Simon Kim

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공급부족으로 가격 상승 압력 Supply pressure to impel intensified home price growth in 2020

광역 토론토 지역의 주택 공급 부족은 이미 투자자와 투기꾼들의 급격한 압력 속에서 캐나다 주택 가격 상승을 강화시킬 것으로 예상됩니다. 최근 분석에 따르면, 2018 년에 처음 도입된 모기지 스트레스 테스트의 가격완화 효과가 충분하지 않은 것으로 나타났습니다. 부동산 정보 포털 Zoocasa는 “외국 및 국내 투자와 같은 요인들도 가격 상승에 기여했지만, 특히 GTA 시장에서 수요를 충족시킬 수있는 집이 너무 적어서 입찰 전쟁과 높은 가격 상승의 무대를 만들었다고 말 합니다. 시장의 수요를 냉각시키기 위해 외국인 투기세 및 임대료 통제를 포함한 여러 가지 조치를 포함한 온타리오 공정 주택 계획이 시행되어, 수요가 눈에 띄게 감소하는 데 도움이되었지만, 캐나다 부동산 시장은 11 월에는 판매자 시장으로 간주 될 수 있으며, 신규 공급이 -2.7 % 감소한 66.3 %의 판매 대 신규 매물 비율로 시장 매물은 2007 년 이래 최저치 인 4.7 개월에 불과합니다. TREB의 시장 분석가 제이슨 머서 (Jason Mercer)는“GTA의 인구 증가와  모기지 금리 하락에 따라 11 월과 2019 년 하반기에 많은 거래를 기록했다고 말했다. 작년 말까지 이 지역의 매매율은 놀라운 81 %를 기록했습니다. “구매자 간의 경쟁이 치열 해지면서 가격 상승이 가속화되었습니다. 우리는 신규 공급이 더 없다면 가격 상승률이 더 높아질 것으로 예상합니다.”

The lack of housing supply, especially in the Greater Toronto Area, will aggravate Canadian home price growth this year, amid already acute pressure from investors and speculators. Coming off the heels of at least nine consecutive months of sales growth on a national level, it can been seen that the moderating effect of mortgage stress testing first implemented in 2018 was not sufficient to prevent demand from overtaking inventory, according to a recent analysis by real estate information portal Zoocasa. “While factors such as foreign and domestic investment have also contributed to too-hot-to-handle price growth, that there have been too few homes to satiate demand, particularly in the GTA markets, set the stage for bidding wars and a stratospheric rise in home values over the course of 2016,” Zoocasa explained. “That infamously led to the implementation of the Ontario Fair Housing Plan, which included a number of measures including a foreign buyers’ tax and rent controls, to cool the demand end of the market.” And while such measures helped cut down demand noticeably, “Canadian real estate as a whole could be considered a sellers’ market in November, with a sales-to-new-listings ratio of 66.3%, as new supply shrank by -2.7% year-over-year.” The total months of inventory are also at their lowest since 2007, at a mere 4.7 months. Toronto’s consistently intense levels of demand are a stark microcosm of the national situation, if statements from the city’s real estate board are any indication. “Strong population growth in the GTA coupled with declining negotiated mortgage rates resulted in sales accounting for a greater share of listings in November and throughout the second half of 2019,” TREB chief market analyst Jason Mercer said. By the end of last year, the sales-to-new-listings ration in the region stood at an alarming 81%. “Increased competition between buyers has resulted in an acceleration in price growth. Expect the rate of price growth to increase further if we see no relief on the listings supply front.”   by Ephraim Vecina 03 Jan 2020


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