Simon   Kim

Simon Kim

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TD은행 2020년 주택시장 전망: 공급부족으로 가격 상승 2020 Housing Outlook: Rising Sales And Tight Supply To Heat Up Prices


· 2019 년은 캐나다 주택 시장이 1 년 동안 회복세를 보였으며 낮은 금리, 꾸준한 인구 증가, 건전한 일자리 증가로 거시적인 건전성 조치가 필요하지 않게되었다.

· 동시에, 전국적으로 수요 증거에 따라 주택 가격 상승이 가속화되었다. 가격 수준은 이제 B-20, 캐나다 은행 금리 인상 및 온타리오 렌트규제 시행하기 전의 상황과 비슷하다.

· 작년에 시장회복을 끌어온 요인은 그대로 유지될 것이며, 이에 따라 올해에는 판매가 증가 할 것으로 예상되어 전반벅인 가격상승이 예상된다. 그러나, 이러한 2019 년 가격상승요인들은 시간이 지남에 따라 약화될 것이다.

· 가용 공급 부족은 판매증가 제한과 가격 상승을 가져올 것으로 예상된다.따라서, 캐나다 주택 가격은 올해 2016 년 이후 가장 빠른 연간 속도로 상승 할 것으로 보임.

첨부된 TD Bank원문 참조

Highlights

  • 2019 marked a year of recovery for Canadian housing markets, sparked by low rates, robust population growth, healthy job gains and further distance from restrictive macroprudential measures. 
  • At the same time, home price growth accelerated amid tight supply-demand conditions across much of the country.  Price appreciation now resembles what it did prior to the implementation of the B-20, Bank of Canada rate hikes, and Ontario’s Fair Housing Plan.  
  • The drivers supporting last year’s recovery should remain in place. As such, sales should climb higher this year, with broad-based gains expected across provinces. However, these factors are unlikely to provide the same thrust as they did in 2019, setting the stage for gains to decelerate as the year progresses.
  • A lack of available supply will have a significant impact on markets, both through restraining sales growth and upwardly pressuring prices. Indeed, Canadian home prices are likely to expand at their fastest annual pace since 2016 this year.

TD Bank full report : Attached

AttachmentSize
CanadianHousingOutlook2020_1.pdf797.69 KB
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